The year 2025 is a critical moment for reflection and refinement of sustainability strategies, particularly with the Science-Based Targets initiative (SBTi) interim goal of 2030 just five years away. Our team took some time to reflect on the state of sustainability amid shifting political and economic priorities using the adaptive cycle framework.

The trajectory of climate action is undoubtedly facing new headwinds. US federal policy is no longer supportive of climate action, and the administration is actively attempting to curtail climate action. In response, some companies have revised or walked away from select climate commitments.

Despite these recent shifts, there are still fundamental currents in play with the American public, business leaders, and climate action. Americans still broadly support government and corporate action on climate change. A majority of Americans (63%) support the goal of the U.S. taking steps to become carbon neutral by 2050. Many companies are continuing their climate and ESG activities but may be publicly speaking about it less often, a trend known as “greenhushing.” 

At the same time, the consequences of climate change, from public health risks to economic disruptions, are becoming more severe. This makes adaptation and resilience more critical than ever.

While federal policies and some corporate strategies are shifting, the core of sustainability remains strong – we just need to alter our approach. Rather than abandoning our efforts, we must rethink and adjust. This is where the adaptive cycle comes into play.

The Adaptive Cycle

The adaptive cycle is a concept that models how change and rapid learning occur in complex systems. This cycle is present in every animal, community, ecosystem, and economy. It can be scaled to bring context to our personal lives, our organizations, and society. The four stages of the adaptive cycle – Release, Explore, Launch, and Sustain – can help us assess and adapt in a time of disruption such as this.

The Release Phase: Disruption and Opportunity

Currently, we are in a time of disruption, which places us primarily in the Release phase. Whether intentional or thrust upon us, the release stage is when a living system releases energy, like leaves falling in autumn or a fire burning through a forest. Disruption leads to release. A large disruption happening right now is that the federal government’s role in climate action has diminished drastically. There are many administrative actions aimed at curtailing climate action, several of which are being challenged in court. This significant disruption includes cutting funding, staffing, programs, incentives, protective regulations, and critical informational feedback loops. Whether we like it or not, this has released energy in the living system of our country in the form of time, attention, money, and ideas.

In a scattered state like this, there is an opportunity for reorganization. Like a forest fire, this disruption releases energy and clears space for new growth. Without the federal government’s support of climate action, we may find opportunities for decentralization. States, cities, and individual organizations have the chance to explore and determine new pathways. New innovative funding models can be tested. 

There is still a lot of good that continues after a fire—seeds, animals that return, trees that withstood the blaze. We’re already seeing that the lack of federal support hasn’t stopped corporate investment in sustainability. 92% of corporate CFOs expect to invest more in sustainability this year. Companies increasingly view ESG initiatives as a competitive advantage, and they recognize that sustainability makes good business sense.

Reflection Questions: What systems, structures, and processes are being disrupted? What energy is being released from this disruption?

The Explore Phase: Finding New Pathways Forward

The Explore phase is a stage of reorientation, asking questions, and trying new things. Released energy needs a place to go. As the law of the conservation of energy reminds us: energy is neither created nor destroyed, only transformed. Paying attention to your environment is essential to identify opportunities to transform how to engage in climate action.

As mentioned, we’re seeing organizations continue their sustainability efforts but change how they talk about it. Some are reallocating resources away from now less effective activities, such as advocating for better federal climate policy and using those resources to support private sector innovation and action instead. We are still early in navigating this disruption, so we don’t know everything that will work. The point of the Exploration phase is to try new things, replicate what works, and let go of what doesn’t.

Ways of navigating the Explore stage include asking how we maintain our core function of sustainability while bringing in new products, services, or language. Experiment and see what sticks with your partners and community. For example, sustainable aviation fuel could be talked about as synthetic aviation fuel. We could find that the language of keeping our water and air clean for our families resonates more than directly opposing fossil fuels. We can focus on direct positive impacts on our audience. For example, improving the energy efficiency of buildings has the additional benefits of supporting local jobs and saving money on utilities.

What was already present but now has the sunlight and space to grow more rapidly? We’re seeing organizations increasing their adaptive capacity and developing more resilience to better navigate new disruptions. Succession on Mount St. Helens provides an example of how nature recovers from disruption through healing and regrowth, stemming from what was still standing, as well as new seeds and ideas that land in the changed environment. By exploring new funding models and grassroots-driven solutions, we can find innovative ways for networks and local communities to fill in the gaps. Nature’s healing process doesn’t happen in a straight line – healing occurs naturally in succession and concentric circles. 

Going through hard things strengthens our adaptive capacity. We have existing relationships and networks we can depend on to keep us stable in the face of uncertainty. Climate action will continue, even if it’s less visible.

Reflection Questions: What opportunities are you investigating? What are the networks and concentric circles that you touch? What conversations are you having there, and how do those ripple out?

The Launch Phase: Invest in What Works

Once several ideas have been explored, it’s time to invest in the ones that show promise. We know the clean energy revolution is unstoppable. It will look different than last year and may slow down to a degree without federal investment, but investment will continue. 

Sustainability isn’t just an ethical choice, it’s good business strategy. Many organizations will continue advancing climate action because sustainable practices drive efficiency, value people, reduce costs, and create long-term value. Without the federal government providing centralized support, the market naturally favors solutions that are both practical and profitable. In this decentralized landscape, the initiatives that make the most sense—both economically and environmentally—will gain traction and stick around.

Reflection Questions: What solutions make the most sense for your organization? What resources can you bring to ideas that are working? What new commitments will you begin?

The Sustain Phase: The New Normal

​​Once we’ve tested, vetted, refined, and invested in new ideas, products, and services in the launch stage, we are ready to systematize and streamline what works. It’s developing just the right amount of structure to support this new way of doing things without getting too rigid in our policies and systems. And then we sustain here until another disruption comes along.

Right now, we’re learning what sustainability looks like in a decentralized landscape. Now that sustainability doesn’t have the federal government’s support, we are working toward a new normal—one that relies even more on local community-based solutions and reaching out to help each other. One that creates mutual flourishing for everyone in our organizations and communities. We’re flexing our resilience muscle, and we have to practice adaptability without burning out.

The adaptive cycle is always in motion, even during the sustain phase. Within every period of stability, smaller cycles of change are constantly unfolding. This is why nature is dynamic: a single tree dies, making space for new growth; animals migrate, reshaping ecosystems; nutrients are broken down and repurposed. Change is not a single event but an ongoing process, a continuous stream we are constantly navigating. The adaptive cycle is a framework that helps us make sense of and move through the ever-present shifts in our world.

Reflection Question: What ideas are ready to be systemized? What structures need to be in place to maintain this new way of being and doing after a disruption?

Seeing Around the Corner of the Adaptive Cycle

The undercurrent of sustainability is still strong, and its roots run deep. While challenges and uncertainties may feel like storms, we aren’t losing the essence of what we’re doing. Organizations are still doing the work even if they aren’t publicizing it the same way. 

Right now, we find ourselves mostly in the release phase of the adaptive cycle—a time of disruption and transition. The next phase is approaching, and with the right perspective, we can help you see beyond the uncertainty and navigate what comes around the corner together.

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We’re here to help your organization understand the state of sustainability and to adapt in times of disruption. Reach out today to learn more.